Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
